End of the World – what does it mean to you?

21st May 2011 and 21st October 2011: self proclaimed “soothsayers” “predicted” that the World would end on the said dates. They arrived at this “conclusion” by conveniently interpreting Religious Texts and misrepresenting Science. Many in advanced Nations prepared for the doomsday.

Days passed by… nothing special happened and the world continued to be ‘alive’ for us. Fortunately our third world was not much aware of such a ‘great danger’ and those who were aware did not take it so seriously. Otherwise we would have ‘thwarted’ the danger by performing continuous prayers, thousands of rituals, fasting and sacrifices!

21st December 2012. Again ‘clairvoyance’ from various corners of the world about the end of Mayan Calendar and end of the World. A British girl committed suicide out of fear sparked by such stories.

It is very sad that some times ‘educated’ youngsters also tend to believe such fallacious gimmicks by interested parties acting as saviours of the world, for cheap popularity or …? Why don’t they try to learn the truth  from web site of Nasa or any similarly placed agency? Don’t the Governments and the Scientists’ community have the responsibility to effectively campaign against such nonsenses? 

Leave those charlatan soothsayers behind.. let us for sometimes submerge ourselves into an interesting thought,“what would I(you) do, if the World is really going to end in 24 hours from now, from now onwards…?”

If the World ends tomorrow…?

This thought can answer the fundamental question of “what does a sane, common man value the most (apart from own life)” .

During our school days, some 15 years back, when we used to ask our friends about this, most of us used to reply that “I’ll get married now itself” (though most of us were not knowing what all can be done after marriage!). 

For many years I could never think about any other possible answer for bachelor men and women. Of late, as the age progressed, a feeling that sex may not be the single desirable and possible action once everybody in this world is sure that all living creatures in this world are going to be wiped off in 24 hours, has been emerging.

Dying alone vs. dying together

There is no need to use the grey matter much to see the huge difference between a person dying ‘alone’ versus ‘dying together’ with all his fellow creatures in this world. In the first case he is leaving behind his family/ loved ones and all his paraphernalia here.. dying an unpleasant death, thinking about leaving his/ her spouse, thinking about children’s education, marriage, financial stability etc. But in the second case, everything is certain, no paraphernalia left and nobody either losses or gains out of somebody’s death. Death is painful in both the case, but in this second case it would be well accepted as there is no alternate option.

Behaviour which human beings may possibly exhibit

The underlying principle in this circumstance is that only “Love” would remain alive during the last few hours. Almost everybody would be lead by moral principles. The reasons could be many – religious belief, a call within to adhere to moral principles in the last few hours, inability to think anything else in such a crisis etc. Once the end of the world is certain there may not be any protest on the road and Law and Order problems as many of us may think. But it is sure that people from various social strata would be responding differently depending upon how the world would be ending. Let us try to predict how the following group of people would be responding to this contingency:

Scientists:

It depends. If the end is due to collision of some large planet/ comet/ something else, Space Scientists, Experts in the field of nuclear weapons etc. will be the most unfortunate guys, as till the last moment they will be working to deflect the path of the object which is going to collide with the earth. They, most probably, wont be able to spend their last moment with their loved ones. In a circumstance where the planet is going to be swallowed by a blackhole OR in a completely uncontrollable circumstance, they will be fortunate to spend their last moment with their families.

National Leaders:

They will try for a space journey and if possible, to stay in the International Space Station/ moon/ space itself, with their wives and children (in case they are their loved ones, otherwise, with the otherwise loved ones), and think of coming back after the collision/ end of the World, to become the Kings and Queens. As you know, this option is not available for leaders of all Nations and this option is workable only if this Earth alone is going to end. If the entire Solar System or at least our neighbouring planets is/are going to be wiped off… then be happy, there is no point in availing of this option.

Businessmen:

Corporates run Nations and control political leaders, in this era. They also will try to reserve their seats for space journey. As the demand is heavy and supply is very very limited, many of the above two categories will kill each other to ensure their seats. They will spend anything, as once they are successful, the entire world would belong to them.

This is slightly contradicting with the moral principles stated in one of the paras above, right? That is because of the inherent nature of the Moral Principles itself- they are applicable only for the vast majority, who are neither at the top nor at the bottom.

Criminals/ beggars/ drug addicts/ jailbreakers

Girls be careful. There are all possiblities of house break only for the purpose of rape.This must be the group who may be skeptical about the Scientific explanation on the end of the World. And they could be less informed as well. A stand still world for a few hours would provide a lot of opportunities for this group..

Terrorists

All terrorists groups would have undemocratic fundamentals. Predicting their plans in this circumstance would be very difficult. Some groups, primarily those with political ideologies, may refrain from any sort of activities during this last 24 hours. But some others may find it as the last ‘opportunity’ to implement their ideologies.

All commoners:

They will spend those last 24 hours with their most loved ones. People from various corners of the world would travel to reach their loved ones during the initial few hours.. a lot of chaos.. Probably all airlines, railways and buses will offer free journeys. Everyone will try to reach their beloved ones in max 5 to 8 hours. Many of them will not be able to meet their loved ones. People in Defence Services and Police will be extra vigilant in the beginning.. after that, their heart beat also will increase… they also will slowly go home, to be with their family. But still some unfortunate Special Task Force guys may be there in the scene, to protect the heartbeats of the people for a few more hours.

Some progressive people may plan for their last family trip to their most loved location (for many, it is their home itself), though none of them will be able to even smile each other due to the moment-wise increasing stress level. Many will gather around with their family at places of worship, with prayers for divine intervention.

…and the last half an hour…, only heartbeats will talk… I plead to the terrorists not to disturb these heart beats, let these beats talk, cry, sing lullabies, pray, spread love, do whatever… and make the entire world united, at least for a moment through the universal language of heartbeat, for an ever sustaining universal principle of love and brotherhood.

.. and on the end of the world

….realise, this much only life means, but this much it really means, the Universal language of heartbeat.

Would like to know about your predictions in this regard. Do write in the Comment box. 

..and the world is under no threat in the near future. Keep yourself away from all soothsayers and superstitions. For those who still believe in the ‘end of the world rumours, my recommendation is this NASA link http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012.html

….and the universal language of heartbeat, allow it to talk, cry, sing, pray, love, do whatever it wants… now also…, from now onwards….

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Rays of Cashless Economy to thwart Shadow Economy

Daily Mail, a UK based newspaper recently published a news item (I read it in the online edition) which reads “Sweden could be first country to go cashless as even churches are taking cards for offerings”. The report states that:

• Sweden was first Nation in Europe to bring in currency notes in 1661 
• Bills and coins now come to just 3% of Sweden’s economy
• Bank robberies plunge, but cyber crime surges
• A small, but growing number of businesses only take cards and some bank offices – which make money on electronic transactions – have stopped handling cash altogether.
• There are towns where it isn’t at all possible anymore to enter a bank and use cash

Though the concept of Cashless Economy, where, in the place of Print currency, other modes of payment viz, cards, cheques, mobile phone payments are adopted for Financial Transactions in the economy, is yet to get popularity in India. However, we can undoubtedly tell that non-cash transactions are gaining popularity here also, as the days pass by. 

 

So, before branding the above news item as irrelevant for this biggest democracy with half of its population below poverty line and in that a lion’s share illiterate and not having any bank account, let us go through the facts from various corners of this world in this regard.

 

The Context

 

In their article named ‘Hiding in the Shadows – The Growth of the Underground Economy’ by reputed economics professor Friedrich Schneider (Johannes Kepler University, Austria) & Dominik Enste, published during March 2002, which is available in the International Monetary Fund website, gives a detailed account of genesis, modus operandi and impact of ‘Shadow Economy’ over the Official economy. As per them, the underground, informal or parallel economy – the shadow economy – includes not only illegal activities but also unreported income from the production of legal goods and services, either from monetary or barter transactions. Hence, the shadow economy comprises all economic activities that would generally be taxable, if they were reported to the tax authorities. 

 

The news item of Daily Mail on Sweden brought out Mr. Schneider’s statement that “the prevalence of electronic transactions — and the digital trail they generate — also helps explain why Sweden has less of a problem with graft than countries with a stronger cash culture, such as Italy or Greece. If people use more cards, they are less involved in shadow economy activities”

 

The opinion of the learned professor is to be readwith the saying that “Black economy is cash economy”. Non traceability, the most significant feature of Printed Currency which enables the user to use it without leaving any trail, is making the Printed currency the most ideal medium for the Corrupt, Terrorists and other players in the Shadow Economy for transaction & storage of Value – two of the primary functions of Currency. Needless to say that Tax evasion and coexistence of Counterfeit Currencies are other banes. It has various other disadvantages like inconvenience to carry, theft proneness and arguably its role even in the spread of Prostitution and AIDS, as many experts on the subject points out. These aspects are not intended to be discussed here.

 

Is cash-less economy a solution?

 

In Cash-less economy, principally all transaction will be done through accounted money in the banks, through various instruments like Debit Cards, Credit Cards, Internet Banking, Mobile Phone Banking etc. Multiple Platforms for transaction would be available. The biggest advantage of Cashless Economy is that all financial Transactions can be traced, which prima-facie can drastically reduce corruption and terrorist fundings, besides avoiding the Cost incurred in the Printing/ Minting of Currencies/ Coins. Remember, 2012 Currency Budget of US (Printing, Trasportation, Currency education & Counterfeit-deterrence research) is totaling $747.0 million.  

 

It may be surprising for those who are not economists like me, to learn that Nigeria has initiated great steps to bring down the use of Printed Currency. Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has introduced a new policy termed ‘Cash-less Lagos Project’ which, as per them, aims at reducing (not eliminating) the amount of physical cash (coins and notes) circulating in the economy, and encouraging more electronic-based transactions (payments for goods, services, transfers, etc.). Various African Countries like Uganda and Zimbabwe are Officially encouraging non-currency transactions, especially over Mobile Phones.

 

Shadow economy and India

 

Shri Dev Kar, formerly a senior economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and now Lead Economist at the Global Financial Integrity in his November 2010 report titled “The Drivers and Dynamics of Illicit Financial Flows from India: 1948-2008, published for Global Financial Integrity brings out that:

 

• India lost a total of US$213 billion dollars due to illicit flows, the present value of which is at least US$462 billion (based on the short-term U.S. Treasury bill rate as a proxy for the rate of return on those assets)
• The total value of illicit assets held abroad represents about 72% of the size of India’s underground economy
• India’s underground economy has been estimated at 50 percent of India’s GDP (or about US$640 billion at end 2008)
• Over $125 billion of that was lost between 2000-2008
• Over $96 billion of that amount left the country between 2004 and 2008.
• These illicit financial flows were generally the product of corruption, bribery and kickbacks, criminal activities and efforts to shelter wealth from a country’s tax authorities.
• Had India managed to avoid this staggering loss of capital, the country could have paid off its outstanding external debt of $230.6 billion (as of end-2008) and have another half left over for poverty alleviation and economic development
• “Total capital flight represents approximately 16.6 per cent of India’s GDP as of year-end 2008.”
• “Transfers of illicit capital through trade mispricing account for 77.6 per cent of total outflows from India over the period 1948-2008.”
• Illegal flight of capital, it says, “worsens income distribution, reduces the effectiveness of external aid, and hampers economic development.”

Trade mispricing is a technique adopted especially by Companies (ultimately by High net-worth individuals) to transfer money out of the country for the purpose of evading Tax, routing through Companies registered in Tax havens, using fraudulent commercial invoices.

 

Based on this report, Shri P. Sainath, well reputed journalist wrote an article in the Hindu daily, titled “Illegal financial flows: the great drain robbery” with the following analysis:

• India is losing nearly Rs.240 crore every 24 hours, on average, in illegal financial flows out of the country

• In just five years from 2004-08 alone, the country lost roughly Rs.4.3 lakh crore to such outflows. That is — nearly two and a half times the value of the 2G telecom scam now exercising Parliament and the media. The Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) pegs the 2G scam at almost Rs.1.8 lakh crore.

• Dev Kar, told The Hindu that “India is losing capital at an average rate of $19.3 billion per annum. India can ill afford to ignore such a loss of capital.”

• And even the total $462 billion, says GFI Director Raymond W. Baker in a letter prefacing the report, is “a conservative estimate. It does not include smuggling, certain forms of trade mispricing and gaps in available statistics.” Factor these in, and “it is entirely reasonable to estimate that more than a half-trillion dollars have drained from India since independence.”

• That does seem an obvious outcome in a country where according to the National Commission for Enterprises in the Unorganised Sector (NCEUS), 836 million human beings live spending Rs.20 a day or less.

• The GFI study makes two vital points amongst others that will surely stoke ongoing debates in the country. One: the drain bloated massively in the era of economic liberalisation and reforms starting with 1991. Two: “High net-worth individuals and private companies were found to be the primary drivers of illicit flows out of India’s private sector.” Conversely, “India’s underground economy is also a significant driver of illicit financial flows.”

• Only about 28 per cent of illicit assets of India’s underground economy are held domestically. It also strengthens arguments that “the desire to amass wealth without attracting government attention is one of the primary motivations behind the cross-border transfer of illicit capital.”

The above are only illicit outward flows. The total size of Shadow economy in India in such a case will be unimaginably high. 

 

Initiatives by the Govt. which can potentially bring in some change:

 

In the ‘White Paper on Black Money’ published by Ministry of Finance during May 2012, the Central Govt. is hopeful that Public Procurement Bill 2012, Unique ID Cards, Implementation of Lokpal & Lokayukta, Agreement between countries for Revenue Sharing etc. can reduce generation of Black Money and repatriate Black Money stashed abroad. It is explicitly stated therein that action by state Govts. in reducing Organised Crime, benamy deals in real estate etc. are vital.

 

I’m a strong supporter of linking bank A/c and Transaction details to the proposed Unique ID Project, as the Nation cannot afford to have generation and smuggling of such a huge amount of Black Money and an ever enlarging shadow economy. Proposed plan to distribute mobile phones to households below poverty line also can give a great positive momentum for our economy in its journey towards becoming a Cashless Economy and emerge out of Shadows (Courtsey to the above professors).

 

But all these require commitment of the policy planners and implementers (yes of the voters as well). We know what is happening with the proposed General Anti Avoidance Rules (GAAR), a landmark-extremely advanced instrument of tax administration, which can drastically curtail the tax evasion by Corporates, the implementation of which, as per the latest news reports (The Hindu 1.9.12), is going to be further delayed. The expert committee on General Anti Avoidance Rules (GAAR), has advocated postponement of the provision by three years till 2016-17. 

_________________________________________________________________

 

Important References:

 

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/issues/issues30/index.htm 

http://www.gfintegrity.org/storage/gfip/documents/reports/india/gfi_india.pdf 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2117643/Sweden-Country-cashless-churches-accepting-cards-offerings.html#ixzz1yh5Ik01s

http://finmin.nic.in/reports/WhitePaper_BackMoney2012.pdf

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/article892140.ece

http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/article3848534.ece

http://www.federalreserve.gov/foia/2012newcurrency.htm 

http://www.greenewave.com/sweden-proving-grounds-for-global-cashless-society/ 

http://www.wired.com/culture/culturereviews/magazine/17-06/st_essay

http://www.slate.com/articles/business/cashless_society/2012/0/living_without_cash_would_a_cash_free_world_have_lower_crime_rates_.html

 

 

 

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1980s’ Kerala, Soviet Union and My childhood

Russian Books and our childhood.

During our childhood, the smell of Soviet Union was there in the air and water of Kerala. India had USSR as the greatest Comrade till that great nation dissolved on 25.12.1991. Pictures of Marx, Engels, Lenin & Stalin were very common in the walls of houses in our area. Soviet Union Magazine used to be the single English magazine available in our villages. My father also had subscribed it. I still keep a few copies of the same as one of my most beloved treasures. Every children loved it because of the attention it can fetch if you use the pages of the Magazine to cover school Note Books! A calendar of Moskovskie Novosti (Moscow News) also is there with me. Though a few of my friends had ‘Misha’ with them, I was not fortunate to possess it.

Our libraries had Malayalam Translations of a lot of Russian Novels. Though I’m not a good reader, the Malayalam translations of ‘Anna Karenina’ of Tolstoy, collection of short novels of Chinghiz Aitmatov titled ‘Tales of the Mountains and Steppes’ and English version of stories written by Alexy Tolstoy can still be recollected easily from those books I read during my childhood. The same was only due to the love and admiration generally everyone in our society had towards USSR. About Pushkin and Mayakovsky…, at least we children and the vast majority of non academics were unaware. Really I feel proud to tell that a lot of effort was put in during that time to read the Malayalam translation of ‘Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism’ written by Lenin, though I could hardly understand. When I was a student of Bachelors in Science in Physics during 2001, I was amazed to discover that a 1984 Soviet Union Magazine had published a better article about Superconductivity than what I studied in my College. 

Chinghiz Aitmatov– Image Courtesy: www.russiapedia.rt.com,  http://www.dakazan.ru

Among the Russian books I read during childhood, the one which influenced me unfathomably is the ‘Tales of the Mountains and Steppes’ by Chinghiz Aitmatov (This book was the winner of Lenin Prize for Literature in 1963), specifically the long story “Duishen (First Teacher)”. The pen picture created by Chinghiz of Kirgizstan Area is re-produced below [I pray Chinghiz (expired on 10.6.08) to pardon me for not taking his permission to post his wordings here. I felt this is inevitable, and it has the powers to fill everybody’s mind with a blossom of imaginations]:

“Our Kurkureu village lies on a broad plateau at the foot of the mountains, with noisy little streams rushing down to it from the many gorges. Below the village spread the Yellow Valley, a huge Kazakh steppe, hinged with the spurs of the Black Mountains and the dark line of the railway running away to the horizon, to the west, across the plain. 

And on the hill behind the village there are two great poplars. I remember them since I remember myself. From whatever side you approach our Kurkureu, the first thing you see are the two poplars, standing on that hill like beacons for all to see. I can’t clearly explain my feeling.. perhaps it’s because the memories of childhood are particularly precious, or maybe it has something to do with my being a professional artist.. but anyway, every time I leave the train and start driving homeward across the plain, I stare my eyes out while still a long way off to see if my dear poplars are there safe and sound. Tall though they are, I could hardly expect to see them from that distance, but to me they are always visible and tangible.

…………

Next morning, when we girls went to fetch water from the stream, we saw Duishen wading across to the other side…..

…………

One day, carrying bagfuls of dry cow dung for fuel, which we usually gathered at the foot of the mountain behind the village, we decided to go and see what the teacher was doing in the old stable. This mud building had once belonged to the bey. He kept his mares there, which had foaled in the winter. Then Soviet power was established, the bey went away, abandoning his property. Nobody even went there and the place was overgrown with burdock…

We dropped our bags on the ground to rest a bit, and at that moment Duishen came out. He was spattered all over with clay and looked startled at first, but then he smiled at us.

“Where do you come from girls?” he asked, wiping the sweat off his face….

Those bags are bigger than yourselves,” he said. I’m very glad you came because, after all, it’s your school, you know. It’s almost ready for you. I’ve just finished building a stove of sorts, and there’s the chimney, see? Ah I have to do now is get in a supply of fuel for the winter, but that’ll be easy, there’s plenty of thistles growing all around. We’ll put lots of straw on the floor to sit on and start lessons. Do you think you’ll like going to school?”…

My beloved Altynai: Soviet Union Magazine 1987 July Coverpage

I was older than the others, and so I felt it was up to me to answer.“I’ll go if my aunt lets me.” 

“Why shouldn’t she, of course she’ll let you, why not? What’s your name?” 

“Altynai…

“Its a good name. And you’re a good girl. I’m sure, eh?” He smiled so pleasantly it warmed your heart.“

The moment this Altynai name appeared, the child in me felt her as my dream girl, the girl in Soviet Union Magazine’s 1987 July Coverpage… and this Kirgistan is Puthanvelikkara (refer my previous Blog in this Series titled ‘Background-The picture of my village’), where, in the place of two Poplars we can find the two Coconut Trunks welcoming you to the village. The theme of the story is Education; the magician Aitmatov not only spoke about the brave and determinant Duishen, but also took me to the School with Altynai. Most importantly, at this age, when I started dreaming more and more about the still intangible concept of ‘Spirituality in Management’, my definition of bliss unknowingly got attached inseparably to the mental picture of long steppes and water dripping from the leaves of two Poplar trees…  

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